Apple is a change agent

“If you're going to try, go all
the way. Otherwise, don't even
start." -- Charles Bukowski
What's the difference between
impossible and improbable? If
you listen to the analysts,
Apple [AAPL ] faces an
impossible task maintaining
its record for disruption,
innovation and change. But is
this perception correct?
The doors of perception
Possibility is all about
perception, perhaps nothing
more than an inner projection
based on prior experience or
opinion. Defying the
conventional limitations of the
possible isn't easy, but
humans do it daily: the Moon
Landings; fire walking by the
Sawau clan; Aron Ralston's
survival of a mountain fall.
In his attempt to explain the
human capacity to achieve the
impossible, Nietzsche
imagined the Overman, a
person who could become fully
actualized in the here and
now.
So is Apple ready to actualize?
The company has frequently
succeeded in delivering
solutions that defined an
industry. History shows it
doesn't always get there first,
but history also shows it then
delivers elegant, effective
solutions that define those
sectors it does enter.
The Macintosh spawned the
PC.
The iPod defined digital music
players -- and still does.
The iPhone ignited the
smartphone explosion.
The iPad remains the only
tablet most people want.
Were these achievements
impossible, improbable or
unlikely?
The new familiars
Design supremo, Jony Ive, has
described (to paraphrase) how
well designed devices fit so
snugly into a user's existence
that the user gets the
sensation their new electronic
gadget has always been there.
With that in mind it's hard to
define the probability of any
device through its present
existence: you need to cast
your mind back to before the
device got there.
Take the iPhone: before its
introduction everyone knew
Apple was working on a
phone, but no one could quite
foresee what it would be.
The introduction of an elegant
touch-based user interface
within a phone design then
streets ahead of anything else
available to the market won
praise and criticism. But few
could imagine the nature of
the product before it arrived.
We spent the months previous
to the introduction reading
endless rumor reports, opinion
columns and positive and
negative analyst and industry
comment.
We're at a similar point today.
Why?
Shock of the new
We believe Apple has a raft of
products in development, but
we don't know what they will
consist of -- we have rumor,
conjecture and opinion on
devices that haven't once been
fully described.
These example headlines
suggest what's being said:
Apple focused on iOS 7
development as new products
loom
Apple plans summer iPhone
release, second model follows
--WSJ
iPad price cuts: A signal Apple
is about to release new ones
Apple iTV 60-inch television to
launch this year, analyst says
AAPL: ‘iWatch’ Coming This
Year, Says Topeka
Apple planning summer launch
for iRadio?
Each of these products and
services has generated
massive speculation.
Analysts, critics, fans and
pundits like yours truly have
pontificated, proselytized and
panned them, pulling them to
pieces as effectively as a
horse-torn execution at the
court of Ghengis Khan.
That's despite us knowing
nothing substantial about any
of these new products or
services.
The iPhone 5S may have NFC;
The iPhone mini may be
available in colors;
The (perhaps) 50-inch Apple
television may be controlled
by "The Precious," aka,
"iRing."
We don't know for sure. Just
like that time before launch of
iPhone, we're in a new realm
of doubt and uncertainty.
Those who can't...
We do know that without the
assistance of Gordon Ramsey,
there's something cooking in
Cupertino's kitchens. We
recognize competitors are
waiting to be "inspired" by
whatever dishes the company
serves up.
What we don't know is what
they will offer.
We can't be certain Apple will
deliver whizz-bang new
features/services within these
new products. These things
might simply exist as
extensions to what is here
already.
Despite all the unknowns,
there's plenty of anticipation
and a goodly chunk of pent up
demand for these new
electronic toys.
So what's Wall Street's
response as Apple rests in the
catbird seat for future
opportunity?
Apple Has Become a Lemon;
Can It Make Lemonade?
Inside the box
There's an adage about
teachers (one I consider
unfair), which is: "Those who
can, do. Those who can't,
teach."
In this case, Apple is preparing
to execute while Wall Street
sells on the rumor in hope,
perhaps, of buying on the
news.
Some might see events around
Apple as comprising a losing
battle for mobile market share
and a desperate attempt to
introduce new products
designed to transform new
industries.
Others might remark that
industry watchers are unable
to take the imaginative leap it
will take to consider just
what's possible in Apple's new
product fleet.
You don't achieve the
impossible by sticking to the
rules, using tried and tested
tools, or staying safe within
the box. You need the
commitment to go all the way,
or else you shouldn't even
start.
I suspect we're about to see
some of the other things Apple
has been working on across
the last decade.