The days of Microsoft's dominance are over, killed by mobile, says Gartner

The growth of mobile devices
and shrinking PC sales will
end Microsoft's dominance,
and by 2017, Microsoft
hardware will lag Android
device sales by nearly 900
million units annually, and
barely squeeze past Apple's
share. So says a report by
Gartner , which adds that
tablets will become people's
main computers.
The Gartner report says that
by 2017, the total number of
PCs, tablets, and mobile
phones shipped will be 2.96
billion. Android will have the
lion's share of them, with 1.47
billion, Windows will come in
second with 571 million, and
iOS/MacOS third with 504
million. That's a drastic
change from 2012, when
Windows was on 346.5 million
devices, Android on 497.1
million, and iOS/MacOS on
212.9 million.
The reason for Android's
dominance and Microsoft's fall
is simple: rising tablet and
smartphone sales, and
shrinking PC sales. Gartner
says that PC sales will shrink
from 341.2 million in 2012 to
271.6 million in 2017, while
tablets will grow from 116.1
million to 468 million, and
mobile phones from 1.75
billion to 2.13 billion.
Carolina Milanesi, research
vice president at Gartner,
explains:
"While there will be some
individuals who retain
both a personal PC and a
tablet, especially those
who use either or both
for work and play, most
will be satisfied with the
experience they get from
a tablet as their main
computing device, As
consumers shift their time
away from their PC to
tablets and smartphones,
they will no longer see
their PC as a device that
they need to replace on a
regular basis."
Ranjit Atwal, research director
at Gartner, told PCPro that
"Even without phones,
Microsoft still halves its share
from around 90% in 2010 to
the 40% range by 2017 as
tablets become a bigger part
of the volume of devices."
The implications of such a
dramatic shift for Microsoft go
beyond Windows. Revenue
from Office could be threatened
as well. Office dominates
traditional PCs, but isn't yet
available for Android or iOS
devices. Given that Google has
just released Quickoffice for
Android and iOS , it's not
certain that Office will
dominate on those platforms.
Quickoffice is free for
companies who use Google
Apps for Business, which could
eat into enterprise sales. What
if Google makes it free for
consumers as well -- or ships
it as a basic part of Android?
How many people would buy
Office then?
If Gartner is right, we're in the
midst of a historic shift away
from Microsoft. The trends
show why with Windows 8
Microsoft made a radical
decision to design an OS more
for touch-based mobile
devices than for traditional
computers. But Windows tablet
sales have tanked. Microsoft
needs to do much more if it
wants to prove Gartner wrong.